Winning in November: Obama's Electoral Math

An extensive SurveyUSA poll released today shows Barack Obama defeating John McCain in a hypothetical match-up by a margin of 280 electoral votes to 256. Obama carries 24 states plus the District of Columbia. In Nebraska, which divides its electoral votes based on congressional districts, McCain wins three electoral votes while Obama wins two.
Of the states which McCain is currently predicted to carry, the race is extremely close in Texas (47%-46%), Florida (47%-45%), North Carolina (47%-45%) and South Carolina (48%-45%). And with Barack as the Democratic candidate, nearly every state west of the Mississippi could be in play:



A wide range of recent polls show Barack Obama increasing his lead in a potential general election match-up against John McCain. At the same time, McCain leads when matched up against Hillary Clinton. Nationally, Barack Obama now leads John McCain by an average of 4.2% in the most recent head-to-head polls, while Senator Clinton trails.

An ABC/Washington Post poll released yesterday shows Obama with a commanding 12% lead over McCain.

The latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows Obama defeating McCain 48-40% nationally, with McCain defeating Clinton by the same margin, 48-40%. The most recent Reuters/Zogby poll shows Obama leading McCain by 7%, while Clinton trails by 12% – a swing of almost 20 points.

Barack performs especially strong in states were he has actively campaigned already this year:

In Iowa, Obama leads McCain by 17 points and Clinton trails McCain by 9 points, an incredible 26 point swing. In Virginia Obama leads by 6 points, while Clinton trails McCain 45%-48%.
In New York, Obama leads McCain by 21%, almost double Clinton’s lead of 11%.
A SurveyUSA poll of Wisconsin from earlier in the week shows Obama again leading McCain by double-digits, while McCain beats Hillary Clinton 49% to 42%.
Obama also outperforms Clinton in recent state polls of New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.
In Pennsylvania, a state were Barack has yet to actively campaign, he already holds a commanding double-digit lead over John McCain, while McCain edges out Hillary Clinton in a close race.
Obama also leads in Oregon and the important state of Michigan.
With a surge of support from young voters and new voters, and with a broad coalition of Democrats, Independents and even some Republicans, Barack Obama has emerged as the strongest general election candidate.
According to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll:

In the past two months, Senator Barack Obama has built a commanding coalition among Democratic voters ... and is now viewed by most Democrats as the candidate best able to defeat Senator John McCain.

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